The Taylor Market Report (1/9/24)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, Contributor/CIO-Entoro Investments


The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Entoro Investments, Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.


Bullish for week of 1/9/24

BTC | ETH

 


Neutral for week of 1/9/24

GOLD

 

Bearish for week of 1/9/24
S&P 500  

 

1/9/24 Closing Prices :

BTC: $46,777.71 | +$1,796 | +4% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,260.43 | -$109 | -4.6% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,008 | -$30| -1.5% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 4,756.50 | +14 | +.003% | (Tue-Tue)


So, how’s 2024 going so far? If you are a Michigan fan the new year is spectacular. If you are (were) a Washington fan……..not so much. No matter which, it’s still 2024. Woo Hoo!

It’s still way to early to make meaningful financial market thoughts. Payroll numbers last Friday came in a bit higher then estimates (OMG, what a surprise). Something to consider; It has been reported that for the last year or so monthly employment numbers have been revised DOWN to the tune of 25%. In other words, headline numbers are overstated and then revised down later…..quietly. Hmmmm! Statistics 101 will teach you 25% is really far off (maybe government bureaucrats cut those classes).

Next up this week the CPI (consumer price index) on Thursday and the PPI (producer price index) on Friday. Once again, not sure the numbers will be trustworthy (happy bias?) but either or both probably won’t mean much. Everyone has already decided what the Fed will do anyway…….cut rates, cut rates cut rates. Hmmmmm!

So it very well may be that the next week or so could be very uncertain. For sure, there’s a lot (a whole lot) of uncertainty out there.

Expecting the two inflation numbers (CPI & PPI) this week and then waiting for the Fed’s next FOMC meeting the end of January it makes sense to put off major investment decisions. Which means, stay very neutral on GOLD. The shiny metal will probably experience some limited volatility, or we call it, “chop.” Chop is not fun. Short moves and going nowhere.

Equity markets…..S&P 500.……look to have more downside than upside. No, 25% returns are NOT sustainable. Again, keep some dry powder and let the fist month of the year play out.

HAVE YOU HEARD?? The SEC is about to approve a spot bitcoin ETF. I know, the news has been buried so people will be surprised. (That’s sarcasm btw). Really, tomorrow (Jan 10th) is supposedly launch date with trading beginning Thursday (11th). Oh boy oh boy.

First, I am VERY bullish on BITCOIN and ETH. That said I try to take a very unbiased view. One contingent of traders/investors expects bitcoin to drop on the news. Sell the news. Another contingent expects a huge immediate demand for bitcoin and a strong push higher. Hmmmmm! 50-50? No, if bitcoin “accepts the news” and does not sell off…….its $70K in a blink. Careful with being short. I love both BTC and ETH.

Again, HAPPY 2024.


FOR THOSE OF YOU AT THE CES (CONSUMER ELECTRONIC SHOW) IN LAS VEGAS, REMEMBER……NO DRINKING, NO GAMBLING AND NO……WHATEVER. IT’S STRICTLY BUSINESS, RIGHT?


2024 TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K
  • ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K
  • GOLD 2024……….$1,800-$2,200
  • S&P 500 2024……..3,700-3,900 (down 20%)

Current trading positions: 

  •  LONG BITCOIN
  •  LONG ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • SHORT S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News and an advisor to Entoro Investments. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.