Here we go again. New week. New things to look forward to and old things to forget (for now anyway). Getting harder to know where to focus attention.
It’s not hard to decide where to focus attention this week though. THE FED. Yup, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) begins its two-day meeting tomorrow (Tuesday) to decide whether or not to ease interest rates. The big announcement comes at 2:00 ET Wednesday followed by a press conference. Everyone (even space aliens) knows it’s a guaranteed lock the Fed will cut 25 bps. But, ya never know — and that’s the big story anyway.
The bigger story is who will make up the Fed committee? Monday (today) President Trump’s pick to be on the FOMC, Stephen Miran, is facing a Senate confirmation hearing later today. He will probably be confirmed, BUT currently there is only one open committee membership. It’s a temp. Miran would take the place of former Fed governor Adriana Kugle who resigned in early August. Her term would have been up the end of January 2026 so Miran has a four month gig. The plan is to have Miran take the place of…….ta da……Lisa Cook, and quickly.
Trump fired one current member, Lisa Cook, BUT she won’t leave. Not only is she not leaving, she is suing Trump to stay on. Why is this such a big deal? She would probably be more of a “hawk” on interest rates, whereas Miran would probably be more “dovish.” Trump wants lower rates and stack the Fed to make sure he gets them. Not sure, but p***ing off the Fed Chair and firing a key voting member doesn’t sound like a great plan.
Oh, by the way, remember inflation is back up running at 3% even as the economy (and employment) weakens. What will the Fed do?
A couple of “old” stories that were “in” a few weeks ago are back on. The Ukraine/Russia war has sort of spread. Putin, for whatever reason, decided to fly some drones over NATO nations — namely Poland and Romania. Surprisingly (or not), NATO responded, shooting down those “lost” drones. Trump responded by proposing deeper sanctions on Russia and trying to force the EU (and NATO) to stop buying Russian oil. What?? NATO buys Russian oil while trying to stop Russian aggression? Crazy. FYI NATO, Putin has a lot of drones.
So, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, NATO and war come back to the “in” list. Time to consider and factor in a wider conflict?
Finally, the Emmy Awards were held last night. Congrats to the winners. That event embellishes the “in” and “out” of attention-grabbing. One week you’re “in,” one week you’re “out.” Surely celebrities don’t care (lol). It’s how you dress that really matters. Right?
Go Fed and the FOMC. Good drama is needed.
