Common Sense for Uncommon Markets
By Bill Taylor, Contributor/CIO-Entoro Investments
The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Entoro Investments, Digital Wealth News or any affiliates. Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.
Bullish for week of 4/11/23
BTC | ETH
Neutral for week of 4/11/23
GOLD
Bearish for week of 4/11/23
S&P 500
4/11/23 Closing Prices:
BITCOIN: $30,168.43 (+$986.19) | (+7% change Tue-Tue)
ETH: $1,916.09 (+$23.24) | (+2.5% change Tue-Tue)
Gold: $1,987 (+$12.00) | (-1% change Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 4,108.94 (-0.17) | (+.002% change Tue-Tue)
First, some really bad news if you are bullish on stocks; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just said she does NOT see an economic downturn coming. She also saw no inflation, remember? It was transitory? Etc.? Kind of casts a pall on being bullish.
Well, Easter is over and its a really good bet the Easter bunny didn’t bring any inflation relief with those colored eggs and candy. Both CPI and PPI will be announced this week. Be prepared. After the inflation numbers come out, all the attention will focus on the next Fed meeting and what will they do. Probably another slight hike (they need to look tough), which means more blah markets. Except for bitcoin, ether and gold.
Speaking of bitcoin, ether and gold (and I was), there appears to be a very subtle message here. It could be a couple of things, BUT the two that stand out? Higher inflation coming OR a flight out of the dollar (OMG, what if its both?). In either case, those two groups are definitely in a bull market. AND, when those two groups are in a bull market, it ain’t good for stocks (equities).
So what now?
BITCOIN and ETH: Like I’ve said for months (you can check past Taylor Reports, I’m proud), the bottom was put in under $20K and $1,200 respectfully. A new bull move is under way. Add on weakness and “ride the wave.”
GOLD;: Yes, its in an uptrend. Should faith in the dollar wane (and it is), GOLD will benefit. I’ve been a bit too cautious but I do respect the bull move. Add if you want, hold if you want, but I’m a BITCOIN guy. GOLD bulls are driving Volkswagen’s and BITCOIN investors are driving Ferrari’s.
S&P 500: Its just a matter of time. The bottom will fall out. Valuations are way out of whack. Way way too many investors are anticipating inflation will return to 2%-3% (it won’t), the Fed will ease rates later this year (they won’t) and, and and. Reality will sink in and the S&P goes to new lows. 3,250? Yeah 20% DOWN. Get short, stay short and get ready.
EVEN IF (BIG IF) INFLATION DROPS TO 3%, INTEREST RATES WOULD NEED TO BE 5% TO HAVE POSITIVE RETURNS. SHOULD INFLATION ONLY DROP TO 4%…….WELL, DO THE MATH. IT AIN’T BULLISH.
IF JANET YELLEN ISN’T WORRIED……….I’M WORRIED.
NEW TARGETS:
- BITCOIN 2023…….UP
- ETH 2023…………UP
- GOLD 2023……….??????????
- S&P 500 2023……..DOWN…….DOWN……DOWN……...LOOKING AT 3,250
Current trading positions:
- SLIGHTLY LONG BITCOIN
- SLIGHTLY LONG ETH
- NEUTRAL GOLD
- SHORT S&P 500
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News and an advisor to Entoro Investments. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.
His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.
