Common Sense for Uncommon Markets
By Bill Taylor, CEO-Digital Wealth News
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Digital Wealth News or any affiliates. Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.
Bullish for week of 2/20/24
BTC | ETH
Neutral for week of 2/20/24
GOLD
Bearish for week of 2/20/24
S&P 500
2/20/24 Closing Prices :
BTC: $52,101.45 | +5.7% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,976.42 | +13.5% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,005 | +1.6% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 4,975.51 | +0.04% | (Tue-Tue)
Last week it was Valentine’s Day. This week it was just President’s Day. Getting hard to keep track. Next up, St Patrick’s Day in a couple weeks. But the big thing – it seems inflation is not ready to turn out the lights yet. Both CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected and the delirious hopes for six interest rate cuts this year went……poof. Gone. Oh well.
So here we are. The long lived equity (S&P 500) bull market hit 5,000, Bitcoin got to $53K, Ethereum $2,900 and good old gold is sitting this out going nowhere. But enough of that rear view mirror looking. The rest of this year is going to be all about the U.S election. Why is that important? Because from this time on, every economic report (a/k/a numbers) will be subject to political manipulation (OK, lying). Misinformation? Bias? Oh yeah. Will interest rate decisions be politically influenced? Or not? Bottom line, you won’t know…..will you.
With that said it is going to be particularly tricky to make ‘informed’ investing decisions. One thing for certain, stock (S&P 500) valuations are stretched to say the least. So let’s consider plain old common sense. Equity markets are overdue for a significant correction. Few people are expecting that. Gold is in a malaise, going nowhere so why hold it? If you had something that went nowhere for years, why do you have it? Common sense. Bitcoin has outperformed everything for years. Now shrinking supply (or, capped supply) plus increased demand and common sense says stick with it (in football parlance, if you hand the ball of to a running back that picks up 5 yards every time he runs off right tackle, why change? Keep running off right tackle). The same for ETH. Pure common sense. keep it simple.
So……buy BITCOIN and ETH dips, avoid GOLD and stay short the (or get short) the S&P 500. Simple. And ignore the economic numbers…..or wait for the inevitable revisions.
WHEN (NOT IF) BITCOIN GETS THROUGH $70k, IT WILL LOOK CHEAP. JUST SAYING.
2024 TARGETS:
- BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K
- ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K
- GOLD 2024……….$1,800-$2,200
- S&P 500 2024……..3,700-3,900 (down 20%)
Current trading positions:
- LONG BITCOIN
- LONG ETH
- NEUTRAL GOLD
- SHORT S&P 500
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.
His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.
