DWN’s new podcast series with hosts, Al and Ivy (AI), presents the most topical subject of the week and discusses it in an easy to understand conversation from AI-generated personas.
With the 16th BRICS summit being held this week in Russia, let’s listen to Al and Ivy (AI-generated by Notebook LM) discuss what’s at stake.
LISTEN TO THE PODCAST ON DWN’s YOUTUBE CHANNEL HERE:
Briefing Doc: BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order
Source: “BRICS Expansion, the G20, and the Future of World Order,” by Stewart Patrick, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 9, 2024
Main Themes:
- Dissatisfaction with the Western-led Global Order: BRICS expansion reflects a growing sentiment among emerging economies that the current global order is outdated and favors Western interests. This dissatisfaction fuels the desire for alternative institutions and power structures.
- Multipolarity and Global Fragmentation: BRICS+ signifies a shift towards a multipolar world, potentially fragmenting the global order into competing blocs. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation and institutions like the G20.
- BRICS+ Heterogeneity and its Implications: The expanding coalition’s diverse political systems, economic models, and strategic interests pose both opportunities and challenges. Internal divisions could hinder BRICS+’s ability to act cohesively and challenge the established order effectively.
- The Role of Middle Powers: Middle powers within BRICS+, like Brazil, India, and South Africa, strive for strategic autonomy and seek to avoid rigid alliances. They will likely play a crucial role in shaping the future global order by mediating between competing blocs and advocating for reform within existing institutions like the G20.
- Western Response and Opportunities for Cooperation: The West must recognize the legitimate aspirations of emerging powers and engage constructively to build a more inclusive global order. Failure to do so could further alienate these nations and solidify the BRICS+ bloc as an anti-Western force.
Key Facts and Ideas:
- BRICS+ Expansion: Five new members – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – will formally join BRICS in October 2024, with dozens more countries expressing interest.
- Motivations for Expansion: BRICS+ aims to challenge Western hegemony by reforming global governance, creating alternative institutions, reducing dollar dependence, and limiting US influence.
- BRICS Track Record: BRICS has achieved limited success in creating parallel institutions like the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement. Efforts to de-dollarize the global economy also face significant obstacles.
- Internal Divisions within BRICS: Despite shared grievances, BRICS+ members differ significantly in their political systems, economic development, and strategic goals. For example, China and India’s rivalry and divergent views on UN Security Council reform pose challenges to group cohesion.
- Impact on the G20: BRICS+ expansion could further polarize the G20, hindering its effectiveness as a forum for international cooperation. However, middle powers within BRICS+ may prefer to maintain their flexibility and leverage within the G20, preventing the formation of rigid blocs.
Important Quotes:
- “Reducing those exorbitant privileges, including by creating alternative, parallel institutions, is the fundamental purpose of BRICS+.” This highlights the group’s objective to reshape the global order and address perceived imbalances.
- “BRICS has been more effective at signaling what it is against—namely, continued Western domination of the architecture of global governance—than what it stands for.” This underscores the need for BRICS+ to articulate a clear and positive agenda to gain broader support and influence.
- **”Rather than a platform for collective action, the forum [G20] has too often become a setting for East-West and North-South recriminations.” **This points to the risk of increasing polarization and the need for constructive dialogue within the G20.
- “The West must demonstrate to these countries that it welcomes (rather than seeks to block) the emergence of a more multipolar world… and that it is willing to negotiate openly on the rules of the road that will govern the future world order.” This emphasizes the importance of proactive Western engagement in shaping a more inclusive and cooperative global order.
Conclusion:
BRICS+ expansion represents a significant development in the evolving global landscape. While its ultimate impact remains uncertain, it signals a clear desire among emerging economies for greater influence and a more equitable global order. The West has an opportunity to respond constructively by addressing legitimate grievances and engaging in genuine dialogue to build a more stable and prosperous future for all.
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