By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are solely those of Bill Taylor & do not represent those of DWN or any affiliates. Any financial advice included here is for entertainment purposes only.
Bullish for week of 3/4/25 ………. BTC
Neutral for the week of 3/4/25 ………. ETH | GOLD
Bearish for week of 3/4/25 ………. S&P 500
3/4/25 Closing Prices :
BTC: $88,040.97 | -0.01%
ETH: $2,169.21 | -13%
Gold: $2,884 | +0.02%
S&P 500: 5,778.15| -3%
Well, wadda ya know. Markets do go down. Fast, too. When reality hits, it hits hard.
So, what is making the financial markets go down? The same things we talked about the past couple of months except now investors are actually beginning to pay attention. You know, high valuations, slowing (declining) economic growth, tariffs, inflation, job layoffs and “stuff.” Who could know? Was all that why there were flashing yellow caution lights? Oh.
There is a sharp “re-pricing” of stocks going on. They have been too high for far too long. An economic slowdown is under way and its going to get ugly. Just in the past few days, the Atlanta Fed has forecast that first quarter GDP will be negative. By a lot. Maybe negative -2.5%. As a reminder, the Atlanta Fed has a terrific track record so take it seriously. That negative number has not been realized by the market. Recession? Very possible. Also, a recession is not in the market.
This week brings jobless claims on Friday (1st Friday of the month) which should be very interesting. Having been overstated for the past year or two the “new” numbers may be surprising, and more accurate. Not saying the past numbers were manipulated to make the economy look better than it was, but………oh hell, yes those number WERE overstated. Here comes reality.
But there are pockets of really good ideas. The president announced there will be a U.S. crypto fund. That was anticipated but now its going to be real. Bitcoin ran up sharply, then sold off and re-tested its recent lows. Also, you can bet President Trump will tout that fund tonight in his speech to the joint members of congress. Also 2.0, there is a meeting this Friday with the “Crypto Czar” to go over the execution of the fund. Yippee. Sounds good to me.
So, what to do ideas?
S&P 500: Rallies are for selling. it’s going to be a long way down, maybe herky and jerky, but down. Bearish, short and happy.
GOLD: Lower interest rates are good for GOLD. less inflation bad for GOLD. Recessions also bad for GOLD. Flight to safety good for GOLD. Hmmmm. 2-2. I’ll be neutral.
ETH: The announcement of a U.S. crypto fund saying it will include a select basket of crypto kind of reduces the ETH presence. I’m going neutral.
BITCOIN: Ah, BTC. The new fund will have BITCOIN as its core holding. When BTC broke below $93K-$95K i said look at the low $80K area. Got there, rallied up, sold off and held that area and now here we go. Very bullish.
BITCOIN. ALL GAS, NO BRAKES.
2025 TARGETS:
- BITCOIN 2025……..$175,000
- ETH 2025…………?
- GOLD 2025……….?
- S&P 500 2025……..4,850
Current trading positions:
- LONG BITCOIN
- NEUTRAL ETH
- NEUTRAL GOLD
- SHORT S&P 500
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.
His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.
