Well, isn’t this going to be interesting.
The second half of the year is just beginning and already the drama (?) and suspense is at DEFCON 5. If there were a higher DEFCON number (there isn’t, whew) we may actually invent one in the next six months. And, if you think there is only one or two events that may impact financial markets in 2024 Part 2, well buckle up, folks. We are in uncharted territory.
Of course the the big gorilla in the room are the U.S. elections (or not) and the political drama playing out. Keep in mind THAT big gorilla may not be the biggest gorilla hiding in the bushes (more later). Of course we are talking about both presidential candidates, one the current president and the other the former president. Not gonna get into any favorites, only what’s happening. Can either of the two candidates have any more drama swirl around them?
Just thinking of ongoing dramas calls to mind two of the best TV soap dramas EVER – General Hospital and The Young and the Restless. So lets begin with the current president (he is president, so he goes first) and………..well, all the ‘stuff’ swirling around him. Or, “The Old and the Restless.” After last week’s ‘debate’, there is a lot of restlessness in one political party. Will Joe stick it out? Will Joe step aside? Will Joe be pushed aside? Who would replace him? What are the ramifications if he doesn’t become the nominee? Who knows? Tune in tomorrow to “The Old and the Restless” to see. To be sure, this drama will continue over the second half of the year.
Then there is the former president and ‘feisty’ candidate. Or, “General Courthouse.” Will Donald go to jail? For how long? Will charges be dismissed? If Donald is sentenced to jail (or house arrest) will his poll numbers go even higher? What’s next for Donald? Who will he pick for vice-president? Tune in tomorrow to “General Courthouse” to see. We all know its going to get “rowdy.”
Now with investigations and legal maneuvering picking up steam a lot of s*** is gonna hit the fan. Joe’s investigations are growing and Donald’s verdicts and sentencing are coming up. Oh, and just for some sport betting, what are the odds of a second debate? ZERO
Moving on to the “Days of Our (Daily) Lives” section. Here’s where it gets really “interesting.” Financial markets have certainly NOT considered (or priced in) any of these potential events.
What will the party of the current president do now? Considering they may very well face a certain election defeat, will they cite potential civil violence during the election and declare martial law, delaying elections? The Democratic Convention this August in Chicago may well portray that scenario.
What would happen if Trump loses a close election again? Again, a precursor to that if Trump is sentenced to jail before the Republican Convention in Milwaukee in a few weeks.
What might foreign adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) do BEFORE our election if they perceive weakness and lack of leadership? Will the Israel/Hamas war become the Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran war? (that’s not far fetched) Will oil hit $100? Will China “acquire” Taiwan?
Will the ‘bond vigilantes’ finally take a close look at the burgeoning U.S. deficits and force higher interest rates, ‘check mating’ the Fed? Or, will a falling dollar cause the Fed to raise rates to protect the dollar? Woo boy.
A stock market rout? 1987 2.0? Right before an election? (not farfetched either)
What will you dress up for at Halloween? Will turkeys cost less this Thanksgiving? Where to go for New Years? Hey, those are tough questions too.
Welcome to 2024…..Part 2
Bill Taylor is the CEO of Digital Wealth News™ and AI & Finance™ and a 40+ year veteran of the financial markets. You can also ready his weekly musings on BTC, ETH, Gold & S&P500 at The Taylor Market Report.
