Haven’t had enough yet? Still not totally dazed……or confused?
What else could possibly be coming? Of course we’re talking about the financial markets and (pick one….or all) tariffs, inflation, DOGE, Ukraine/Russia, war/peace, political “shenanigans,” geopolitical “issues,” legal challenges AND market meltdowns. Whew! You think it’s over? All in the markets? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Thought you understood what effects tariffs may have on the economy? Not. Tariffs could be totally on, or off, or partially on, or adjusted or raised or lowered. What? Will those tariffs cause more inflation? Maybe, maybe not, maybe in certain sectors, maybe only if other nations raise their tariffs or if the tariffs kindle a trade war and recession ensues, then no inflation. Got it?
DOGE is going to lay off “X” amount of government employees. Or will they? Will the courts let them? If so, the job market is going to take a hit and unemployment will spike. Recession? Probably.
Also, let’s not forget the good old Ukraine/Russia conflict. Looked like a peace deal was going to get under way, but then (on live TV) it seemed everybody wasn’t on the same page. BUT, should there be a pause in the fighting, it’s a good bet the sanctions on Russian oil will be lifted with the price of oil plunging. $35-$40/bbl? That will cause some Mideast nations a problem, not to mention Texas. Good news at the pump, bad news for oil workers and producing nations. Inflation muted too.
It’s probably not too early to bring up the possibility of some good old political in-fighting within the administration. Elon Musk is certainly going to step on some toes by cutting staffs and budgets. Should Elon leave, then what happens, aside from Tesla dealers breathing a sigh of relief? That potential in-fighting sure is not a welcome sign for financial markets.
So what might be coming next?
A government-managed recession.
As previously mentioned, every new president wants to get all the bad “stuff” over with early and fast. It’s happening. All bad? Yes and no. A recession will certainly be very painful for a good amount of families and people. But it’s been a struggle for many over the past few years anyway.
However, a recession will bring down inflation and interest rates. Real estate will come down and make home ownership more affordable. Let’s get it over with, and when the recession is over, the president gets credit for “taming” inflation, lowering interest rates, creating new jobs and opening the “Golden Age of America.”
So, what’s next? A financial (stock, commodities, etc.) meltdown. The bear market begins. THAT is not (so far) priced in the markets. Yet.
