Common Sense for Uncommon Markets
By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Digital Wealth News or any affiliates. Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.
Bullish for week of 3/26/24
BTC | ETH
Neutral for week of 3/26/24
GOLD
Bearish for week of 3/26/24
S&P 500
3/26/24 Closing Prices :
BTC: $69,780.91 | +7.8% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $3,567.44 | +7% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,156 | +1% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 5,203.58 | +0.05% | (Tue-Tue)
FIRST………..HAPPY EASTER. Enjoy.
Second, happy end of the first quarter of the year. Hope it has been profitable. So what have we learned from the first quarter? Well, for one, there will NOT be six (6) interest rate cuts this year. That hope/expectation is gone. So far the financial markets, mainly equities, have not been fazed……so far. Inflation and the cost of living is NOT coming down. Oil prices are once again moving higher ($82 today) as are many things that the “official” inflation numbers don’t reflect. Like, eat cat food, don’t drive and live in a tent and life is good(??).
Moving into the second quarter, realize the Fed has a problem. A BIG problem. Cut rates and throw some lighter fluid on the inflation fire, or raise rates and try and get inflation down further. Cutting rates would scream of political bias, raising rates tanks the economy (banks, markets, real estate,etc). Sadly, that may be necessary.
The biggest threat to the markets moving forward may very well be the November elections (see below). Its going to get “rocky.”
Bitcoin and Ethereum have had a great week, gold a decent week and the S&P 500 a firm week. Why and how?
BITCOIN has buyers. Lots of buyers and more coming. MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor have been huge buyers. With the ‘halving’ coming next month the supply of BITCOIN will again shrink. Interesting, a large BITCOIN miner just bought $1.6B BTC in the open market. Anticipating huge demand, not being able to mine enough to satisfy that demand and they needed inventory. Shortage of BITCOINS, demand increasing……….hang on. Expect UP!!
ETHER, a tag along way to play (and cheaper), and the upside is really good. Accumulate, hold positions, add to positions and……well, I’m bullish.
GOLD seems to have picked up Chinese buyers. Makes sense (somewhat). China has problems, currency weakening and the populace doesn’t have ready access to BITCOIN. Hence the scramble to buy GOLD. I have been neutral on GOLD but it is breaking out to the upside. Might make sense to own some.
S&P 500 is way, way way past its bull market lifespan. A very few stocks are holding things up. It will not last. Expect the unexpected for the balance of the year. Not a good thing either. A short position is a must.
HERE IS A VERY VERY SCARY SCENARIO THAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGHT. LONG SHOT, BUT OH MY. THE 2024 U.S. ELECTIONS WILL NOT BE HELD. CITING A POTENTIAL FOR ELECTION CHAOS AND VIOLENCE, THE GOVERNMENT DECLARES MARTIAL LAW AN PUTS ELECTIONS ON HOLD. GREAT FOR GOLD AND BITCOIN. STOCK MARKET WILL CLOSE. MY NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.
2024 TARGETS:
- BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K (winner……..now $95,000)
- ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K (winner….now $4,800)
- GOLD 2024……….$1,800-$2,200
- S&P 500 2024……..??????????
Current trading positions:
- LONG BITCOIN
- LONG ETH
- NEUTRAL GOLD
- SHORT S&P 500
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.
His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.
