What IF………….IF Happens?


We all do it. Probably every day too.

You think of something, see something or dream of something and what if……it actually happened? OMG! That’s probably a good first reaction. Like in ‘what if you won the lottery?’ OMG! Or, ‘what if you are recruited to be CEO of Boeing?’ Well, small omg.  Or, ‘what if your husband got pregnant?’ O O O OMG! Yeah, probably not.

OK, seriously now. Let’s look at the financial markets and wonder “what if” and wonder what if it really happened. The equity markets have defied all odds and conventional wisdom the past few years. (that’s tough to admit for a staunch bear…..me) The Dow Jones index just hit 40,000 the S&P 500 is over 5,000 and tech stocks (AI for sure) are surging. All with higher (for longer) interest rates, stubborn inflation, geopolitical unrest and on and on. Equities are still UP. But, “what if” the Dow goes to 50,000? The S&P 500 hits 6,000. And, it happens? It’s not a stretch to believe that someone in the past thought “what if the Dow goes to 40K?” (or 30K, 20K, etc.)

OMG, it all happened. Big deal? Been a “life changer?”

So now it gets really interesting. “What if” bitcoin goes to $100K (or $1M); Gold goes to $5K; Silver hits all time highs above $50 (RIP Hunt Brothers). “What if” it’s happening now?

Again, “what if” all these price movements are the final “blow off” in the markets? It’s happened before and most likely will again. Things get crazy and speculation rules. “What if” several months from now there is Dow $50k, S&P $6K, Bitcoin $150K, Gold 5k, Silver $60? A buying frenzy. We can say “if” really happened.

AH, but here’s the flip side of “what if.” Should speculation begin to get out of hand (gasp), and asset prices explode upward, “what if” the Fed steps in and raises interest rates, or margin requirements, to curb speculation? “What if” the markets all crash? OMG!

“What if” inflation surges again? “What if” it is decided that fair elections may be too dangerous (protests, violence, etc.) and are “postponed” with martial law declared? OMG! What if THAT happens?

Perhaps that’s why the financial markets are basically in a state of stupor, and holding. A 50% chance of a huge “blow off rally,” or a 50% chance of a huge decline? An even risk/reward. But, even more exciting (or scary), “what if” BOTH happen. OMG!