‘The Who.’ Classic, awesome and hall of fame rock band. Maybe they were way ahead of their time. Or, learned from the past. Either way, they won’t be fooled again.
Financial markets are (were) soaring. Gold, silver and metals rocketing up. The “Golden Age of America” seems to be well under way. AI will change the world (oh boy….or scary) and the U.S. is top dog again in the global community. It’s a Goldilocks time in the markets. Markets go up each and every year, it’s just a matter of how much. Downturns are only fleeting thoughts. Yup, this time it’s different.
Well, at least that seems to be the current feeling of half the country. The other half? Not so upbeat. But who cares, they don’t own stocks or gold, etc etc. Oh, maybe to catch up with the upper half they sucked it up and bought some bitcoin. Instant millionaires.
But what if….IF….things kind of go wrong? Yes, I know nothing can ever go wrong but still, what if it did? To make an analogy, consider the airplane. A long time ago a DC-3 airliner could carry passengers roughly 300-400 miles before it had to land for gas. Then the bigger DC6/7 could fly 2,000-3,000 miles. Then jets could fly even father. Now, the newer planes can fly 20 hours or more. More people on board, farther flights and all is good. However, they all have one thing in common; eventually they have to land for gas. Because if they don’t……well, it will be ugly and all over the news.
Sounds a lot like the financial markets. More people in (oh, but safely because of ETF’s and Index Funds) and markets stay up longer and longer. Don’t get fooled. They do come down.
Consider bitcoin. EVERYONE including the president bought bitcoin. And why not. There is a limited supply, its going to $200K…..$500K…$1M….$10M. But, it seems to have “run out of gas” after flying high and far for 15+ years.
Gold. Great hedge against inflation, war, etc etc. Maybe everyone is now fully hedged? The last small central bank just bought gold. Hmmmmm. Silver? Really? Looks like a lot of folks may have gotten fooled…..again.
Equities? Be serious, stocks only go up. Yeah, but if they need to come down for gas (new fresh buyers) it’s a big fall from 40,000 feet (or 50K Dow) than from 10,000 feet.
There are enough headwinds around the globe to make one shake their head in wonder at why all the enthusiasm. They say they don’t ring a bell at market tops, but I swear the bells are ring somewhere. Or, as “The Who” sang;
“I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
Don’t get fooled again
No, NO!”
