Well, here we are, deep into April, where the weather is confused, the markets are confused, and baseball fans are in that magical two‑week window where every single team is still a legitimate World Series contender. Hope springs eternal — at least until the first bullpen collapse.
Most readers know by now that Cindy — Founder, Publisher, and the actual grown‑up at DWN and AI & Finance — left us far too soon to a vicious, fast‑moving cancer. What hasn’t left is her presence. She’s still here, woven into the wiring of everything we publish. She edits my thoughts before I have them, corrects my grammar before I type it, and rolls her eyes at me before I earn it. DWN still runs on her instincts, her standards, and her refusal to let anything sloppy or cowardly make it to print. If anything, she’s louder now — just without the ability to throw a pen at me.
The Strait of Hormuz: Now With Even Less Logic Than Last Week
The Iran war continues its long audition for “Most Exhausting Global Crisis,” and the Strait of Hormuz is now operating on the same schedule as a moody teenager: open, closed, open-ish, closed again, and absolutely no explanation offered.
In the last few days alone:
- Iran reopened the strait for about five minutes before hardliners slammed it shut again, declaring it would remain closed until the U.S. ends its blockade.
- The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues, backed by destroyers, carriers, Marines, and enough hardware to make a Bond villain blush.
- Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker, prompting India to call Iran into the principal’s office.
- The UK raised the threat level to critical, which is British for “this is very bad but we’re going to say it calmly.”
- Shipping traffic is now a global version of musical chairs, except the chairs are on fire and cost $80 million each.
Oil prices are ricocheting like a toddler on Red Bull. Markets plunge when the strait opens, spike when it closes, and generally behave like they’re trying to get attention.
Private Credit: The Monster Under the Bed Finally Stands Up
Private credit is no longer the quiet little side‑hustle of global finance. It’s now the 800‑pound gorilla knocking over furniture and pretending it was already broken.
Recent developments:
- Redemption requests are exploding. Carlyle’s Tactical Private Credit Fund saw 16% of shares requested for withdrawal in Q1. Blue Owl Technology Income hit 41%. Blue Owl Credit Income hit 22%.
- Funds are slamming the gates shut, capping withdrawals at 5% — because nothing says “healthy asset class” like telling investors they can’t have their money.
- Wall Street banks are now trading credit default swaps on the funds themselves, which is the financial equivalent of taking out life insurance on your neighbor because you don’t like the way he coughs.
- Executives are openly stress‑testing portfolios as defaults rise, AI disruption accelerates, and outflows turn into stampedes.
- The BDC market is shrinking fast — sales down 40% year‑over‑year, with a $21 billion maturity wall approaching like a slow‑motion train.
Private credit was built for a world where money was free, growth was guaranteed, and nobody asked too many questions. That world is gone. Now we’re left with opaque valuations, illiquid loans, and leverage stacked like a Jenga tower built by someone who’s had three bourbons.
Inflation: The Uninvited Guest Who Won’t Leave
Inflation is back, louder and more obnoxious than before.
- CPI jumped to 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, up from 2.4% in February.
- Gas prices surged to $4.08–$4.14 per gallon, the biggest monthly jump in three decades.
- Economists warn the inflationary effects of the war and the strait closures could take months to unwind — assuming the strait ever stays open long enough to unwind anything.
- The Fed’s forecasting tool now suggests inflation will rise again in April, which is the monetary equivalent of your doctor saying, “Good news, the pain will continue.”
Everything is more expensive: groceries, airfare, shipping, and the privilege of pretending things are fine.
Gas Prices: The Beverly Hills Olympics of Denial
Gas prices are up again, because of course they are. Between the blockade, the closures, the gunboats, and the tankers doing U‑turns like confused shoppers in a Costco parking lot, fuel costs are climbing fast.
Beverly Hills remains the best place to see $7 gas and people pretending their Range Rover runs on positive thinking.
Stay Tuned
The global soap opera isn’t slowing down. They’re not just adding new characters — they’re adding new plotlines, new crises, and new ways to make your wallet question its life choices.
