Let’s begin with a philosophical question worthy of a late‑night dorm room debate or a very bored monk: When is a surprise not a surprise? The most obvious answer is the so‑called “surprise birthday party.” There are no surprise birthday parties. There are only parties where everyone pretends to be surprised. Even if you’ve spent your entire adult life telling friends and family, “Please, for the love of God, no surprise party,” you know you’re getting one. The only true surprise would be if you dropped dead the morning of the party and the guests had to stand around the cake wondering whether to sing or call 911.
It seems people were shocked—shocked!—that the signing of the peace accord between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled for last Friday, was “postponed.” Postponed is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. The real surprise would’ve been if the thing actually happened. An even bigger surprise? Realizing the war is nowhere near over. Sorry, wishful thinkers. Hope is not a strategy, and apparently neither is diplomacy.
Don’t be stunned when—maybe this week—revelations leak that Iran doesn’t actually want the war to end. Ever. Why would they? They may have discovered a fantastic new revenue stream. No, not toll booths. Think bigger. Think Wall Street villain origin story. The surprise will be Iranian traders (and probably a few Russians and Chinese tagging along) playing the financial markets like a Vegas blackjack table. It’s easy: Get short → announce peace talks are off → close the Strait of Hormuz → cover shorts → go long → reopen the Strait → announce new talks. Rinse, repeat, profit. It would be more surprising if people didn’t think this was happening. It’s insider trading on a global scale, and the SEC can’t exactly subpoena Tehran.
Moving along the calendar, we arrive at Thursday. Ah yes. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures—drops. No one will be surprised if it shows inflation is still climbing like a caffeinated squirrel. A real surprise would be if the index showed inflation moderating. A bigger surprise would be if new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced he doesn’t like the PCE (or dot plots) and simply gets rid of them. The biggest surprise? Warsh “adjusts” the index to remove all the items that keep going up in price. Voilà—problem solved. Inflation cured by subtraction.
And then there’s the other major event this week—because it is summer—the NBA Draft on Tuesday. Surprises everywhere. Every top prospect believes he’s going in the top five. Well… surprise surprise. Tears will flow. Dreams will wobble. Agents will start sweating through their expensive shirts. There are definitely a few players who now wish they hadn’t been pulled over with those “fun” substances they just bought. Actions have consequences, especially when ESPN is watching.
But the giant surprise, the one that shakes the sports world to its core, will be that I personally have not been drafted. Again. Apparently the league still refuses to recognize my driveway shooting percentage. Maybe I should’ve gotten tattoos. Or a hype video. Or a 42‑inch vertical.
As we drift into summer proper, remember: things are going to slow down. It would actually be surprising if they didn’t. Everyone will start mentally shifting toward July 4th and the nation’s 250th birthday. Two hundred and fifty years. That’s a long time. That’s a lot of candles. And that’s a party absolutely worth having. No surprise there.
Content provided by Bill Taylor with the assistance of co-pilot
