The Lead: Keeping up with Trump

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A new week brings new challenges, and once again there’s no getting ahead of the news cycle. The same front‑page crises remain, but the way they’re handled seems to shift by the hour. Actually, scratch that — they do shift by the hour.

The war with Iran dominates everything. Sure, the endless Yellowstone spinoffs have their place, but the real‑world plotline unfolding in the Middle East has more twists than any TV writer could dream up. Trying to manage investments while a conflict involving a major energy producer — and a long‑time U.S. adversary — rages on is enough to make anyone retreat to reruns.

When the war began, President Trump suggested it would wrap up in days, maybe weeks. True to that optimism, he later announced the conflict was essentially over. Victory declared. The only problem? No one seems to have informed Iran. And after Israel “neutralized” much of Iran’s leadership, it’s fair to wonder who exactly was left to receive the memo.

As missiles and drones continued to hit targets across the region, Trump acknowledged the war might take a bit longer… again. The message became: everything is under control, but we’ll need more ships, more funding, and maybe some Marines. The U.S. would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz with allied support — whether we need it or not — and ultimately crush Iran. Victory declared… again… again.

Then oil prices spiked and equity markets tanked. Rising gas prices and falling markets tend to get attention, so the administration “de‑sanctioned” some Russian and Iranian oil to keep prices in check. And instead of destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure, the U.S. announced it wouldn’t touch it. In response to the shifting tone, Iran’s remaining leadership signaled interest in cease‑fire talks. It raises the question: has the “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade returned?

Financial markets are riding a volatility high. What will Trump say next — tonight, tomorrow, or five minutes from now? Maybe it all ends with a simple announcement: the U.S. will stop destroying Iran’s country, and Iran will stop pursuing nuclear weapons. And here we are.

Last week, The Lead warned about the potential for disasters. And sure enough, we got one — the first‑round brackets of March Madness. Total chaos. And the mother of all disasters may be coming next week: Duke and Arizona both losing. Unthinkable.

Makes you wonder what Trump’s bracket looks like.