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Inflation is still high. Commodities are ticking up again. As far as I know, the Fed is still raising rates and employment layoffs are gaining momentum. And that pesky recession looms larger.
Sorry bulls. Recessions are NOT bullish. Higher rates are NOT bullish. Uncertainty is NOT bullish. Real estate weakening is NOT bullish. Wake up and smell the reality. S&P 500 (equities) drop anther 20%.
Inflation is like a New Year's resolution. You put on 50 lbs. eating too much. You resolve to lose weight, you drop 25 lbs, but you are still 25 lbs. heavier. Inflation eases to 6.5% from almost 8%. It's not bullish.....and you're still overweight.
Like the disclaimers say, "the past is not indicative of future results." That is certainly true in a bear market. Markets can, and do, go down longer then people believe.
I have made the point over the years that EVERY new year's financial market prediction is.........worthless. But, since they're usually free you can't lose anything, so here goes.
Don't worry, the Fed has a handle on inflation. Don't worry, regulators will make sure your crypto investments will be safe. Don't worry, the government is ready to help you. Rest well in 2023.
I want to believe. I really do. No, not in Santa Claus but rather all the happy, optimistic, forward-looking economic chatter. But, alas, I just can't. Inflation in the US, came in "lighter" then estimated BUT 7% is NOT good.
One more "shoe" to drop? Real estate. I know, gotta get that house now, right? Ah, no. Be ready, be smart and be prepared. Bear markets can (and will) get very nasty.
EAR SANTA, I HAVE BEEN GOOD (AND BULLISH) ALL YEAR. WILL YOU BRING ME A NEW BULL MARKET? CAN YOU MAKE INFLATION GO AWAY? WILL YOU MAKE THE FED STOP RAISING INTEREST RATES? CAN YOU MAKE GOLD BE VIABLE AGAIN?
With the FTX drama playing out, talk about inflation, interest rates and a recession is being pushed aside. Don't get sucked into thinking those issues have passed. They have NOT.