Common Sense for Uncommon Markets
By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Digital Wealth News or any affiliates. Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.
Bullish for week of 3/19/24
BTC | ETH
Neutral for week of 3/19/24
GOLD
Bearish for week of 3/19/24
S&P 500
3/19/24 Closing Prices :
BTC: $64,740.59 | -9.5% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $3,335.14 | -16% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,135 | -0- | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 5,178.51 | -0- | (Tue-Tue)
Only a week and a half left in March. The first quarter of 2024 will be in the books. The Fed is meeting and will announce tomorrow (Wednesday) that it will……do nothing. And why should they? Everything seems to walking the tightrope fairly well. If they cut rates…..inflation flares. If they raise rates…….the economy tanks. If I were Fed Chair Powell (I’m not), I’d skip out while it’s good and “spend more time with my family.” Duck out before the s*** hits the fan later this year.
So while investors/traders wait for the FOMC non-decision and take time to begin working on their March Madness basketball brackets (that’s what I’m doing…..its gonna be my year!), let’s look back. Inflation (CPI) came in a bit hotter then expected last week, gold rallied, bitcoin rallied and declined which is what the S&P 500 did. All a big yawn….except for bitcoin/ethereum. Bitcoin and ether went down, gold went nowhere and the S&P went nowhere as well.
With only a few trading days left this quarter, let’s look beyond into the second quarter for what to do. And, before I get to bitcoin and ether, let’s look at gold and the S&P 500.
GOLD. The shiny metal is still caught in the wide trading band ($1,800-$2,200) i have been posting. Stubborn inflation and steady interest rates have GOLD handcuffed. If interest rates do NOT go down, or tick up, GOLD is screwed (see below for a real GOLD initiative). Stay neutral – it’s a trading range.
S&P 500. Real short; get short or phase in some short positions. The latter part of the year is gonna be a down market time. Inflation is picking back up (check oil….pushing $85bbl), valuations are way out of whack and too many longs. Be short.
BITCOIN and ETHEREUM. OK, the two of them hits new highs and have now dipped. Buy the dips. Supply shrinking (April is the halving) and more buyers coming in. Remember BITCOIN ran up before the SEC allowed BITCOIN ETFs and people sold on the news. Is this the opposite? Sell before April and then a rally? I think so. You wanted a dip….here it is. UP is still coming and on steroids. Very bullish. Stay or get long (see below)
Back to BB brackets.
HERE IS A VERY VERY SCARY SCENARIO THAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGHT. LONG SHOT, BUT OH MY. THE 2024 U.S. ELECTIONS WILL NOT BE HELD. CITING A POTENTIAL FOR ELECTION CHAOS AND VIOLENCE, THE GOVERNMENT DECLARES MARTIAL LAW AN PUTS ELECTIONS ON HOLD. GREAT FOR GOLD AND BITCOIN. STOCK MARKET WILL CLOSE. MY NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.
2024 TARGETS:
- BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K (winner……..now $95,000)
- ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K (winner….now $4,800)
- GOLD 2024……….$1,800-$2,200
- S&P 500 2024……..??????????
Current trading positions:
- LONG BITCOIN
- LONG ETH
- NEUTRAL GOLD
- SHORT S&P 500
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.
His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.
