By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are solely those of Bill Taylor & do not represent those of DWN or any affiliates. Any financial advice included here is for entertainment purposes only.
BULLISH – BITCOIN, ETH
NEUTRAL – GOLD, SILVER
BEARISH – S&P 500
1/20/26 Closing Prices:
BTC: $89,534.08 -5.1% (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,994.06 -6.6% (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $4,693 +3.7% (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 6,796.86 -2.4% (Tue-Tue)
So, how’s the new year going? I’m pretty sure it’s not going as planned so far. A very early lesson and take on the markets? They can, and will, go down. Shocking isn’t it.
There is way WAY to much uncertainty and potential negative possibilities for investors to continue buying what could easily be the all time top of a long running bull market. Tariffs (are they in or are they out), Mideast war, Iran, Ukraine/Russia war, declining employment, Federal Reserve uncertainty, Greenland, inflation, affordability, social unrest, equity valuations etc etc.
To be fair, if you are bullish they have a great argument to counter all that; stocks always go up. There you have it. What could possibly go wrong?
Of course with financial market volatility being what it is (vicious, wild, etc) hedging positions is pretty much a necessity. Oh sure, any time you hedge you give up some of the potential profits BUT managing risk allows you sleep better at night AND hold on to positions when things go against you (yes, that can happen).
So keeping in mind the 50 or so (? lol) things that can go wrong and the 1 thing that can go right, here are ways to “play” the markets.
First, the (overvalued) S&P 500. Like I said last week, putting on a short call spread works well. Buy a relatively far out (April, May) 690 +/- call and sell a deep 630 +/- call. One to one. Let the decline begin. Don’t bother buying puts. Its a fools game.
GOLD and by default silver. I’m neutral and staying there. Picking a top on those two is soooooooo tempting, but that’s no reason to short them. Fun to watch though. Neutral.
Ah, the money pit. BITCOIN and ETH. These two have been a really tough trade for the past few months. The bullish banter is constant……no supply, $250K, $1M, Trump is ‘in.’ etc. But, the “coins” trend down. Sigh! The only way to “play” is just go out far in the options market (June?) and buy call spreads ( I use the Blackrock ETF…IBIT). Like the June +/- 60 call +/- and sell the June 70-75 call. BTC explodes up it makes money and holding a position like that allows sleep at night. I am bullish on BITCOIN but not sure when the next big up move happens. Hedged and bullish.
See you next week.
P.S. IF ANYONE WANTS TO BUY A FROZEN ISLAND, CALL ME. OH WOW! SOME GUY NAMED TRUMP IS ON THE OTHER LINE. GOTTA TAKE THIS CALL.
S&P 500…..Hedged Short
GOLD…..Neutral
BITCOIN…..Bullish
ETH…..Bullish
2025 TARGETS:
- BITCOIN 2026………..$175K +/-
- ETH 2026………………$5,000
- GOLD 2026……………..?
- S&P 500 2026………….Down 10% on a pullback….then????
Current trading positions:
- BITCOIN…….LONG
- ETH….NONE
- GOLD….NONE
- S&P 500….HEDGED SHORT
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.
His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.
