Taylor Report

I want to believe. I really do. No, not in Santa Claus but rather all the happy, optimistic, forward-looking economic chatter. But, alas, I just can't. Inflation in the US, came in "lighter" then estimated BUT 7% is NOT good.

One more "shoe" to drop? Real estate. I know, gotta get that house now, right? Ah, no. Be ready, be smart and be prepared. Bear markets can (and will) get very nasty.

EAR SANTA, I HAVE BEEN GOOD (AND BULLISH) ALL YEAR.  WILL YOU BRING ME A NEW BULL MARKET?  CAN YOU MAKE INFLATION GO AWAY?  WILL YOU MAKE THE FED STOP RAISING INTEREST RATES?  CAN YOU MAKE GOLD BE VIABLE AGAIN?

With the FTX drama playing out, talk about inflation, interest rates and a recession is being pushed aside. Don't get sucked into thinking those issues have passed. They have NOT.

Even if (if) inflation moderates to, say 6%, it's still too high. Interest rates would have to be 6%+ (7.5%?) To be "normal." that's not in the market. Rates are still going up.....and staying up.

The morning began as U.S. mid-term election day (still is) with all the focus there, BUT its turned into a crypto war/truce day. CRAZY. Rumors the past week that FTX had "maxed out its credit card" sparked liquidity issues.

To be sure, interest rates are beginning to "pinch." Markets seem to think the FED will "flinch" and back off raising rates. That does NOT mean they will come down.

The 4th quarter is off to a good start and Halloween is only a few days away. Looks like the bear market in Bitcoin, ETH, Equities and Gold(?) have decided to go out trick-or-treating as a bull.

THE VERY WORST THING A BEAR MARKET DOES IS WEAR YOU DOWN. VOLUME DRYS UP, LACK OF INTEREST IN MARKETS BECOMES PREVALENT UNTIL YOU CAN'T TAKE ANY MORE. NOT MANY PEOPLE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE. BUT, HERE YOU ARE.

Continuing to believe inflation is "over" & the Fed will ease off on raising rates is like banking on the tooth fairy to come every night. You will run out of teeth pretty quickly.