The Taylor Market Report (12/19/23)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, Contributor/CIO-Entoro Investments


The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Entoro Investments, Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.


Bullish for week of 12/19/23

BTC | ETH

 


Neutral for week of 12/19/23

GOLD

 

Bearish for week of 12/19/23
S&P 500  

 

12/19/23 Closing Prices:

BTC: $42,235.87  (+2.6% Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,170.89  (-.004% Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,021  (+3% Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 4,768.37  (+2.7% Tue-Tue)


No more counting the DAYS to 2024. Nope, we are now down to counting the HOURS. I mention that because 2024 is going to be very……..interesting.

First a must look and comment on the equity markets. It seems investors are totally confident they can only go up. Perhaps they are right, BUT lets refresh; everyone knows what “capitulation” is. It’s what bulls wait for. In a down (bear) market, it’s when equity owners can’t stand holding positions anymore and “capitulate” by selling their holdings at any price….a/k/a, giving up.

Now what we have here is the opposite. It’s called a “blow off.” That’s when everyone who has waited to buy equities lower (or cover shorts) gives up and just buys at the market. The market is up. so everything must be good, right? FOMO (fear of missing out) takes over. Perhaps that is where we are now (or very close). The market goes up every day, can never go down and “glee” reigns. The “blow off.”

There has been a HUGE disconnect between markets and actual economics and the population’s overall financial condition. Since COVID, it can be argued the equity market has become one big casino. THAT is scary. Equity ownership (in various forms) is at record highs but living standards (except for the top 5%) for most are not anywhere close to what the market reflects. Only way to get ahead? Play the market. Scary. What could possibly go wrong?

With all that I will reiterate; 2024 is going to be very, very interesting.

It’s too late to make any real investing/trading decisions for 2023, but here are some thoughts to “chew on” over the holidays.

S&P 500:  It appears this is the beginning of (or end of) a panic buying “blow off.” The S&P 500 could explode to 5,000………or whatever. When things don’t make sense, I like short term T-bills. Be very careful……….and be forewarned.

GOLD:  A nice run. I respect GOLD investors and their resolve to continue to see GOLD as a store of value, inflation fighter, etc. etc. But it has been a terrible investment for quite some time. Once again, when in doubt (and neutral) short term T-bills look great.

BITCOIN & ETHER:  Ah yes, the current bull run (up over 150% this year) has just begun. There are so many bullish cases to be made. Huge demand (institutional) and a shrinking supply. Expect a spot BITCOIN ETF in early 2024 and regulatory guidelines, too. New highs may be too low. BTC & ETH will be the talk of the new year.


EQUITY BULLISHNESS RUNS WILD.  NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE A “SOFT LANDING” IT WILL BE SOFT AND PLUSH. THREE INTEREST RATE CUTS?? I HEAR WHISPERS THERE COULD BE TEN RATE CUTS.  INFLATION? ITS GONE FOREVER. MARKET COULD BE UP 50% NEXT YEAR.   GO BULLS.  (hint; that’s sarcasm)

MERRY CHRISTMAS  (not sarcasm)


NEW TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2023…….UP……$50K
  • ETH 2023…………UP……..$2,400K
  • GOLD 2023……….$2,050
  • S&P 500 2023……..Looks like 4,700

Current trading positions: 

  •  LONG BITCOIN
  •  LONG ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • SHORT S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News and an advisor to Entoro Investments. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.