The 2024 primaries are over. No, not the election primaries but rather the NFL football road to the Super Bowl.
Gad, the similarities are real. Just as former President Trump and current President Biden both LOOK like the presumptive candidates, the NFL also has its two nominees. The Taylor Swift-led Kansas Chiefs will play the Venture Capitalist’s-led Santa Clara 49er’s. Each after a series of “debates” (and really entertaining games) with several challenging teams have reached the pinnacle; the “election” to be held at the Super Bowl to swear in the NFL football champion.
So unlike the Super Bowl, which will have a definitive champion by nightfall on Feb.11, the presidential election in November, and it’s lead up, will be quite challenging to financial markets. Can, or will, anything be believed as economic conditions and forecasts are released? In other words, will financial markets become (even more) politicized? Certainly investors can expect a whole lot of “dis-information,’ “fake news,” AI-generated images and flat out lies (both parties….we are non-political here). I mean if you paid off a football wide receiver to drop a pass or two, or a field goal kicker to miss a kick, there would be ramifications. Politics…..meh, not so much. So get ready.
Last year it appears that the monthly employment numbers (NFP….non-farm payrolls) were consistently overstated by almost 25%. The numbers released, which showed strong economic conditions, were later revised lower thus overstating economic conditions. And, ya know, nobody pays attention to revisions. Will this year expand on such “financial engineering?” Good bet it will. Election years are notorious for “curious events.”
Even the Fed will be subject to suspicion. If they raise interest rates, it may be interpreted one way and if they lower rates they may be accused of politicizing their decisions. Even their comments will be scrutinized for any potential bias. It’s going to be quite the year.
It’s an election year. A big one. Take every financial announcement at face value and remember “dis-information” and “behavioral influencing” will be extremely prevalent. As an example, I just heard the Detroit Lions did, in fact, beat the Santa Clara 49er’s. Who knew?
(Biggest winner of the month? The Buffalo Bills place kicker Tyler Bass who missed a game-tying field goal to force the KC game into overtime. Why? He is the ‘ambassador’ for ‘no kill’ cat shelter Ten Lives Club which received over $250K in donations to make him feel better. Cats win!)
Bill Taylor is the CEO of Digital Wealth News and a 40+ year veteran of the financial markets. You can also ready his weekly musings on BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500 at “The Taylor Market Report“.