The Taylor Market Report (1/16/24)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, Contributor/CIO-Entoro Investments


The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Entoro Investments, Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.

Bullish for week of 1/16/24
BTC | ETH

Neutral for week of 1/16/24
GOLD

Bearish for week of 1/16/24
S&P 500  

1/16/24 Closing Prices :

BTC: $43,210.44 | -$3,568 | -7.6% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,582.02 | +$322 | +1.4% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,008 | $0| 0% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 4,765.98 | +10 | +.002% | (Tue-Tue)


Welcome to January. Frozen January. No place seems to be spared (except Hawaii). Aloha!

Well, as predicted, the SEC did, in fact, approve all applications for a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin popped up on the news and then pooped out on the news. Again, as predicted a couple weeks ago, there very well could be some “good news” selling (it happened) and then things would settle down (it has). After some rest, let the upside momentum begin (See related article: GOLD vs BITCOIN vs BITCOIN ETF).

In other news, both the CPI and PPI (consumer price index & producer price index) came out last week and one was a touch “warm” and the other a touch “cool.” Doesn’t much matter which is which, it’s a wash. Now eyes are focused on the Fed meeting at the end of the month for clues on interest rates. Bet it’s a big nothing burger.

So while all the 2024 financial forecasts keep pouring out (sorry, can’t stop them), everyone now knows almost nobody got last year right. Once again, most likely nobody will “nail it” this year either. 

BUT, what if everyone is wrong again this year BUT for the wrong reasons? What if interest rates don’t get cut…..or raised? What if inflation doesn’t perk up……but stays stubbornly high? What if there is no recession……but no growth? What if the financial markets (equities) drift lower and PE’s compress to past  “normal” levels. What if there is some “Black Swan” event that shakes everything up? (if i knew what would I tell you?). In other words. a blah year.

Ah, but if those things happen the analysts’ language in a few months will be “it’s a stock pickers market.” Or in other words, only trade/invest in winners, which I’m sure they will have.

My choices or actionable ideas?

GOLD:  If my thoughts above have a chance of being right, GOLD may just drift around a little above $2k and a little below $2k. Or, just be in a “choppy” trading zone. I remain neutral.   BTW, GOLD went nowhere all week. Like….0.

S&P 500:  The S&P 500 (stocks in general) appear extremely tired. Way to many bulls and optimistic investors. Rather than huge drops, maybe a slow “leak” of consistent lower prices. I still think some short position is warranted. A patient short position.  Also, the S&P 500 was flat on the week.

BITCOIN & ETH:  I fully expect new all time highs for BITCOIN. If BTC continues to hang around $42K-$43K for a bit longer then the next move up will be huge.  Be a buyer.  ETH will go along. I expect $3k and maybe more.  Both will be the stars in ANY market.


 NEW WORD FOR 2024 – STAGFLATION.


2024 TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K
  • ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K
  • GOLD 2024……….$1,800-$2,200
  • S&P 500 2024……..3,700-3,900 (down 20%)

Current trading positions: 

  •  LONG BITCOIN
  •  LONG ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • SHORT S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News and an advisor to Entoro Investments. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.