Confusing & Complicated Markets. Thank Goodness for Vodka.

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Not during the day. Talking about the vodka.

But, figuring out confusing, complicated financial markets and global events is an all day job. Then when you realize you can’t figure things out, THEN it may be time for the vodka (or whatever else works for you).

INTEREST RATES

Got a good handle on interest rates? Well kudos to you, since even the Fed isn’t quite sure of what to do. At the beginning of the year, the expectations were for no less than six rate cuts. Now the hope is for just one rate cut. So, interest rate cuts are pretty much dependent on inflation which has moderated, but not to the extent the Fed wants. And, it’s ticking up again. But investors are “all in” on the Fed cutting rates……….even if the Fed doesn’t have a clue what to do. Do investors know more than the Fed? (which may not be that hard) Bottom line? Ease rates, juice the economy and inflation OR, raise rates to crush the last of inflation but also crush the economy. Hmmmmm! Or, hide out somewhere and do nothing.

IT’S COMPLICATED

Here’s a big complicated question. When is a war not a war? Obviously there is a war going on in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. Easy to see and accept that. But recently a new “door” was opened when Iran (not any of it’s proxies) directly attacked Israel. Iran sent about a gazillion drones and rockets at Israel without a whole lot of success which, in turn, resulted in a direct Israeli attack inside Iran. Several commentators mused that this COULD lead to war. Huh? Is it not true that when two arch enemies begin directly attacking each other it IS war? Maybe this war is going to be waged in the streets of America. Probably will be referred to as “peaceful protests”.

ELECTION EFFECT

Things are going to get really complicated, and definitely confusing, as we get closer to the elections in November. Almost everything in the news (including financial) will be considered disinformation, biased, half truths and maybe even a conspiracy. (one person’s conspiracy is another person’s fact) Every government economic forecast and number will be scrutinized for political bias. Confusing? Yes. Investors are sure to be questioning their every investment/trading decision.

So if things weren’t already complicated enough, its going to get worse. Recommendation? Put down the newspapers (yes, they still exist), turn off the television and cable news, curl up with the aforementioned vodka (martini or just straight) and try to relax. Remember, things always work out and get better. Right?


Bill Taylor is the CEO of Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance and a 40+ year veteran of the financial markets.  You can also ready his weekly musings on BTC, ETH, Gold & S&P500 at The Taylor Market Report.