The Taylor Market Report (4/16/24)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance


DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.

Bullish for week of 4/16/24
   


Neutral for the week of 4/16/24
GOLD     BTC    ETH


Bearish for week of 4/16/24
S&P 500

4/16/24 Closing Prices :

BTC: $62,874.15 | -8.7% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $3,065.25  | -12.6% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,365 | +1.6% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 5,051.41 | -3% | (Tue-Tue


Well the financial markets are beginning to make less and less sense. Inflation is beginning to tick back up, a wider war in the Mideast is under way, election shenanigans have picked up steam, interest rates are climbing and……..financial markets are relatively calm. But, it appears changes are-a-brewing.  Normally I would say WTF, but you get the picture.

  • So the big (HUGE) news event was Iran directly attacking Israel. Now common sense would have you expect that bonds would rally on a flight to safety……but NO.
  • Interest rates have climbed on inflation moving higher. With rates climbing you would expect gold to decline……but NO.
  • Uncertainty and a ‘halving coming this month” should drive bitcoin higher……but NO.
  • You would expect a wider Mideast war would drive oil prices higher…….but NO.
  • Equity markets would be expected to sell off hard……but once again, NOT SO MUCH.

Now it’s time to yell WTF.

Ah, but the year is young. Many months left in 2024 and a whole lot of “stuff” is lurking out there. I think all these reactions listed above may be just an adjustment and create some opportunities.

First BITCOIN & ETH.  Looking back a bit it, looks like the $73K-$75K was a tough nut to crack. Also, it appears a whole lot of investors are dumping BITCOIN holdings and moving to GOLD. That may have more to go. I am still very long term bullish on BTC and ETH BUT BITCOIN may see $50K -$55K. ETH $2,500-$2,700. Scary but a good opportunity to buy.

GOLD. The shiny metal is undergoing a very nice run. Investor money moving out of BITCOIN (and other assets) into GOLD is joining central bank buying. Big G may see $2,650-$2,700.

Equities….S&P 500. Its hard to believe the stock market is holding up…..so far. It has been slowly leaking air lately and I expect the downside to pick up steam. Wars, inflation geopolitical events, etc etc are not bullish Enough said. The S&P 500 looks 15%-20% down.

With all going on, I am going neutral on BITCOIN, ETH and GOLD for now. Short S&P 500. Old saying on the trading floors….

“I’d rather be out of the markets wishing I was in rather than in the markets wishing I was out.”


 FIRST, NO MATTER WHAT MAY BE IN THE NEWS, NOW I TRULY EXPECT SOME UNFORESEEN BAD ‘THINGS’ TO GO DOWN BEFORE THE ELECTION. I DON’T KNOW WHAT (OR WHEN), BUT IT’S GOING TO BE REALLY BAD.  KEEP IT IN MIND.

INTEREST RATES ARE NOT GOING LOWER. YOU CAN WISH THE TOOTH FAIRY COMES DOWN THE CHIMNEY WITH EASTER EGG GIFTS, BUT THOSE PRESENTS ARE NOT INTEREST RATE CUTS.


2024 TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K  (winner……..now $95,000)
  • ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K  (winner….now $4,800)
  • GOLD 2024……….$2,200-$2,800
  • S&P 500 2024……..?????????? 

Current trading positions: 

  •  NEUTRAL BITCOIN
  •  NEUTRAL ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • SHORT S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.