The Taylor Market Report (4/30/24)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance


DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.

Bullish for week of 4/30/24
       


Neutral for the week of 4/30/24
GOLD     BTC      ETH


Bearish for week of 4/30/24
S&P 500

4/30/24 Closing Prices :

BTC: $59,948.94 | -10% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,949.87  | -8.4% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,266 | -1.4% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 5,035.69 | -0.07% | (Tue-Tue


It’s the last day of April, which in turn means tomorrow is the the first day of May. Pretty brilliant, huh? And, the first day of May signals the old “Sell in May and Go Away” adage. Might want to pay attention to that saying this year.

What else will the first few days of May bring? First, the Fed will finish its two day meeting tomorrow (Wed) and announce……..no change in interest rates. Need more data to re-enforce their thoughts (that wasn’t hard to figure).  Next, on Friday (first Friday of the month), the Labor Dept. will announce employment numbers. Gonna be a fast and interesting first three days of May.

BUT, the biggest thing that May will bring to financial markets.  REALITY….once again….REALITY!   Oh that? Yes, that.

So, what does that mean? It means everything that has been pushed aside and ignored is now beginning to to sink into investor’s minds.

  • Guess what? Inflation is not going down. Or away. The cost of living has jumped well over 20% the last few years and now increasing by “only” 3%+ yearly. Yup, it’s not transitory or subsiding.
  • Interest rates are not going to get 6….or 4….or 2…..or even 1 cut this year. Rate cut hopes and dreams have been dashed. In fact, there may actually be a…..gasp….rate hike. Ya keep spending money and buying votes, and bad things happen.
  • Not only has the war in the Mideast not subsided, its actually spreading. That war is being played out on the streets and campuses of America. As I have said for quite some time, war is bad and unpredictable.
  • The November elections cannot be taken for granted. Investors have assumed the election will be held without any problems and the two candidatures will be Trump and Biden. Take nothing for granted.

There are many more things that have been overlooked or ignored, but you get the picture. REALITY is rearing its head. Those bullet points above are not speculation. Its right in front of you…..and has been.

What to do now. Don’t be the last one to ‘panic.’

I love BITCOIN and ETH and have for a very long time. Long term holder. BUT, now is not the time to be in BTC or ETH. Lighten up or be out. Things are getting nasty.  I just can’t be short, so I am neutral.

Same for GOLD. The party is over. GOLD will not be the safe haven because there will be no safe havens. I will stay neutral.

S&P 500. If you can’t stomach a 20%-30% downside lighten up or get out. I can’t BUT I can be short. Beware, just because there hasn’t been a huge drop doesn’t mean there won’t be.

“I’d rather be out of the markets wishing I was in rather than in the markets wishing I was out.”


BE VERY CAREFUL. FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE PERFECTION PRICED IN. NOTHING IS PERFECT.


2024 TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2024…….???????????????
  • ETH 2024…………???????????????
  • GOLD 2024……….??????????
  • S&P 500 2024……..?????????? 

Current trading positions: 

  •  NEUTRAL BITCOIN
  •  NEUTRAL ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • SHORT S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.