Simple Thoughts in Complex Markets
By Bill Taylor, Contributor/Entoro Wealth
The opinions expressed below are my own & do not necessarily represent those of Entoro Wealth or any of its affiliates
We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.
10/13/20 Closing Prices:
Bitcoin: $11,365.43 (-$115.13)
Ether: $377.74 (-$5.55)
Gold: $1,886 (-$31.00)
S&P 500 3,511.93 (-22.29)
Trading Summary Notes for Tuesday, 10/13/20:
Great to be included as a regular contributor on the new Digital Wealth News platform. Thanks Publisher Cindy Taylor. Middle of October with Halloween sneaking up. Is your costume going to be a Bull or a Bear?
Quoting from last week; THE EQUITY MARKETS ARE INSANE! NO, REALLY THEY ARE. The common thinking is markets hate uncertainty, BUT there is nothing but uncertainty. Covid-19….phase 2? Stimulus packages?? U.S. election?? Trump….plus or minus? Biden….plus or minus? NEITHER has a clear victory?? What then?? So, I get buying gold and Bitcoin to hedge the uncertainty, BUT STOCKS? Well, only one (1) week from last week’s Taylor Report and more questions have arisen.
What to do now? (Diabolical laughter or crying is OK)
First off, since I stuck my neck out and made year end price predictions previously, I will show them here again. Unlike others, I am not afraid of putting my thoughts in writing.
Year end BTC price? $17,500.
Year end ETH price? $500.
Year end GOLD price? $2,200.
- BITCOIN is beginning to “re-awaken.” That $10,000 area is getting more distant in the rear view mirror. Remember my saying last week “all is quiet before the storm.”
- It’s like a volcano. All of a ‘sudden’ it erupts and that is what BTC will do. Do I hear rumbling?
- Well, BTC has begun the march to the $12,000 area. Currently “dancing” (seductively) around $11,500 but looking good. Our short term target has always been $12,500 so get ready.
- Should, NO WHEN, the $12,500 mark is broken the next target is $15,000.
- More and more central banks (20 at last count) are moving toward developing a digital currency, including even the U.S. Well, the U.S is at least “thinking about it.”
- Most of those CBDG’s will be based on ETHEREUM blockchain. Which means ETH may be stepping out from BITCOIN’S shadow.
- The $330-$370 support area we have called for the last few weeks has held (Yea Bill) and now ETH is knocking at the $400 door.
- Look for ETH to move to $550 if (when) BTC cracks above the $12,500 level.
- GOLD is down $30 today as I write. I have no idea why.
- GOLD! Lets say a good entry point around $1,850-$1,875. AND, so far so good.
- Stay long. GOLD near upside target is $2,500……yup, $2,500. Longer term? $3,000-$3,500.
- Looking ahead, after throwing money (and continuing to print $$$) to ensure a recovery, inflation may soon be on the rise and geopolitical/pandemic risks are only getting stronger. Indeed, inflation IS beginning to rear its head. Positive for GOLD.
- Now on to the equity market (S&P 500). Its all emotion. Valuations? HA! Earnings? HA HA! Economic predictions? HA HA HA!
- So let me say the scariest word to all the equity market buyers that expect (and demand) the market go up “constantly;” GRAVITY Enough said (warned)
- Keep putting some “gentle” shorts out on strength.
- S&P 500 “dips” to 2,500-2,600?
Strap in – IT’S GONNA GET WILD
Current trading positions: LONG BITCOIN, LONG ETH, LONG GOLD & SHORT S&P 500
Bill Taylor is Managing Director/CIO at Entoro Wealth & is widely published in financial industry media throughout the world