The holiday season is beginning. ‘Tis the season to be jolly? Well, jolly is OK but it’s really time for some good old fashioned common sense.
This year’s “opening act” for the holiday season is the U.S. mid-term elections. Followed by the Federal Reserve’s last two meetings focusing on interest rates. To hike or not to hike. Hmmm, good question. And, of course, financial markets are rife with projections, predictions, forecasts and “expert opinions.” Time for some COMMON SENSE.
With everything going on, how will financial markets react? To be really REALLY clear, no one knows. NOBODY! After all that’s happened this year (or even the last few years), common sense shows anyone that claims to have “the answers”…………doesn’t. So, common sense should also make you aware that anyone with the “answers” probably has a great deal of bias. Beware the bias. Or, better known as “bull s***.”
Let’s start with politicians (they’re the easiest). Both parties and independents, too. No bias here. A person running for office will try and convince you the sun doesn’t rise in the east OR the west, but rather the north. (Oh, never heard that before! Could it be true?) Anything that politicians (either party) say is geared to getting elected. Bias for personal gain. Coincidentally, it’s election season (gasp) so the political bias is gushing. Common sense tells you to tune it all out.
How about non-elected officials? Like the Fed. Think about this.
First there was no inflation. Then, even if there was, it’s only “transitory”. And then, OK its bad inflation but we will “fix” it. You go to the store, buy a package of Kit Kat candy (my preference) for $2.00. Next shopping trip, that bag costs $2.50 and has fewer Kit Kats. Last trip, bag costs $3.00 and even fewer candies. That’s common sense inflation. Why would the Fed be biased? Hmmmm! Big office, fancy trips and meetings and not having to admit they were wrong.
That leaves financial “experts.” That’s bias central. Think market positions (long or short). How will “my pay” be affected? Will investors pull money out if I’m not optimistic? (opposite for shorts). Financial bias usually is not in investor’s best interest. Common sense.
So as the election heats up, the Fed meets and the end of an ugly year comes closer to the end, bias, “reality stretching” and denials are rampant.
What does just plain common sense make? The most sense. ‘Tis the season to be “street smart.”