The Taylor Market Report (1/23/24)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, Contributor/CIO-Entoro Investments


DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Entoro Investments, Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.

Bullish for week of 1/23/24
BTC | ETH

Neutral for week of 1/23/24
GOLD

Bearish for week of 1/23/24
S&P 500  

1/23/24 Closing Prices :

BTC: $39,238.43 | -$3,972.01 | -9.2% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $2,193.53 |  | -15% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,008 | $0| 0% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 4,864.60 | +98.62 | +2% | (Tue-Tue)


Bitcoin. Election. Bitcoin ETF.  That’s all anyone talks about. Big whoop! And speaking of bitcoin (which I am), how about a big sarcastic thank you to Grayscale.

As we all know, the SEC approved several spot bitcoin ETFs recently, investors sold on the news and bitcoin dipped. BUT, it seems Grayscale (and FTX) investors have been big sellers. WHY?! Well it seems when Grayscale converted to an ETF it cut its management fee to 1.5%. WOW! From 2%. Double WOW! However, all the other new ETFs are charging introductory fees of 0 to .3% or so. Well, sell my Grayscale holdings and invest in the much cheaper new ETFs. Very simple, it puts pressure (for now) on bitcoin.   Note: Does Grayscale not ‘get it?” No wonder their new ETF has such a big discount.

Of course any time bitcoin sells off the haters spring to life (listening to Jim Cramer). “OMG, it’s going to zero.” “I knew it was worthless back in 2009.” “Glad I didn’t buy it,” etc. But, this dip will pass, the new ways to invest in bitcoin will catch on and all will be well. So there.

So, what else is going on? The stock market (S&P 500) got to new all time highs and are living in a fantasy world. Investors are expecting 6 interest rate cuts this year BUT the Fed has said MAYBE 3…..or less. Hmmmmm! The first Fed meeting of 2024 happens on the 31st so it’s a waiting game. Don’t know why since the Fed has already signaled it’s position. Right now we have a toss up for the S&P 500. A huge “melt up” and bull market blow off………or, the beginning of a prolonged sell off in equities. Tough pick.

For the week (Tue-Tue) the S&P 500 added 2%, Gold was flat (unchanged), bitcoin dropped 9.2% and ETH sank 15%.

While we wait for nothing to happen:

GOLD.  The shiny metal is trapped in a “no-person’s” land……say $1,800-$2,200. Lower interest rates that may trigger higher inflation (good).  Rates stay here or perk up (bad). GOLD goes nowhere for now. Remain neutral.

S&P 500.  As noted above, looks like a 50-50 game. More new highs? Start of prolonged decline? I still have to remain a cautious short.

BITCOIN and ETH.  Well, here’s the dip everyone always wants (me, too). All the “re-shaping” of how you can invest in BITCOIN is under way. The “sell on the news” worked and here we are. Still very bullish long term on both BITCOIN and ETH. The big upside is still coming. I don’t scare easily.


 2024.  EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.  MAYBE SEVERAL UNEXPECTED EVENTS.


2024 TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2024…….UP……New highs above $70K
  • ETH 2024…………UP……..New highs above $3K
  • GOLD 2024……….$1,800-$2,200
  • S&P 500 2024……..3,700-3,900 (down 20%)

Current trading positions: 

  •  LONG BITCOIN
  •  LONG ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • SHORT S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News and an advisor to Entoro Investments. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.