The Taylor Market Report (6/18/24)

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Common Sense for Uncommon Markets

By Bill Taylor, CEO / Digital Wealth News and AI & Finance


DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed below are my own & do not represent those of Digital Wealth News or any affiliates.  Any financial advice included in the column is for entertainment purposes only.

Bullish for week of 6/18/24
BTC       

Neutral for the week of 6/18/24
GOLD | S&P 500 | ETH

Bearish for week of 6/18/24
N/A

6/18/24 Closing Prices :

BTC: $64,399.36 | -4.3% | (Tue-Tue)
ETH: $3,398.55  | -2.6% | (Tue-Tue)
Gold: $2,305 | +0.06% | (Tue-Tue)
S&P 500: 5,487.03 | +2% | (Tue-Tue)


Only a week and a half until the first half of the year is over and done. And still no interest rate cut from the Fed. Golly, what a surprise. And inflation is still above 3%. Golly golly, another surprise. And, signs of a softening economy are popping up. Another golly golly. BUT, the equity markets are still moving higher. NOW THAT’S A SURPRISE!

To be sure, the equity markets are getting ever more narrow. AI and tech stocks are masking a lot of underlying weakness. Hey, but who cares? We all know markets only go up, right? News doesn’t matter. Common sense doesn’t matter. The only thing that really matters is that its summer. Except that it snowed yesterday here in Bozeman, Montana. Another surprise.

So, what the hell is going on? Going on my tag line of Common Sense for Uncommon Markets, it seems the failure of common sense is running amok. But, I have history (lots of it). This market looks very similar to 1987 (yes, a bit ago). That summer markets went up every day, quietly and stealthy………just like now. You couldn’t be short (well, you could but it was costly) and terrifying to keep buying. Month after month, new highs. And then, October came. Markets crashed. 25% in a couple days. These markets look eerily similar. If there is a correlation, take it from me, don’t fight it. Hit the pool/beach and come back in September.

GOLD is waffling between nervousness about interest rates staying higher for longer, a possible rate cut sometime, geopolitical events and…..stuff. In the meantime, it is going nowhere so I like being neutral.

BITCOIN. Talk about frustrating. Getting to break through the $70K-$75K area is tough. I am still looking at new highs and getting to $95K by year end, but looks like patience is the rule. Hold and stay long. Its all good. Back to the pool.

ETHER. Very similar to above. Patience. Damn. Share the pool with the BITCOIN crowd.

S&P 500. I can’t be a buyer “up here.” Nice upside run and realize tech and AI are holding it up. Looks, and feels, just like 1987…..summer….but wait till September/October. Neutral and looking for a BIG short play.

ANYONE STAYING LONG EQUITIES COME THIS FALL (& BEFORE THE ELECTION) IS EITHER A GENIUS OR AN IDIOT.  SOMETIMES THAT’S A FINE LINE, TOO.


2024 TARGETS:

  • BITCOIN 2024……..$95K
  • ETH 2024…………???????????????
  • GOLD 2024……….??????????
  • S&P 500 2024……..?????????? 

Current trading positions: 

  •  LONG BITCOIN
  •  NEUTRAL ETH
  • NEUTRAL GOLD
  • NEUTRAL S&P 500

We compare the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold & the S&P 500. We use the CME Bitcoin Indexes (BRR & BRTI) and the CME Ethereum Indexes (ETH_RR_USD) & (ETH_RTI_USD) for reference as well as the London Bullion Market afternoon price settlement on the digital assets & gold.


Bill Taylor is CEO of Digital Wealth News. He is widely published & quoted in financial media and an international expert on markets and BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500.

His opinions are solely his own and for informative purposes only.