How’s The New Year Going So Far?

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Two weeks down, fifty more to go. This new year (2023 if you missed it) is under way. So with everyone accustomed to instantaneous results, should we just take the first two week’s accomplishments and call it a year? Forget about the next fifty weeks? Uh, no! The first two weeks of any new year are ALWAYS followed by fifty more.

Now a lot of folks would relish the opportunity to call it a year already. Investors long equities, bitcoin (crypto) buyers, gold bulls, half the fans with NFL teams in the playoffs and anyone who resolved to lose weight and just lost 3 pounds would love to declare “the year’s over.” Sorry, fifty more weeks to go.

On the other hand, investors short equities, short bitcoin (crypto), anti-gold bugs, fans of losing football teams and those who resolved to loose a lot of weight but only lost 3 pounds NEED the next fifty weeks to recover. Yay(!), fifty more weeks to go.

So after the first two weeks of relative calm and complacency, what will the balance of the year bring? Or, what could possibly go wrong? Or, go right?

  • I know most investors want the bear market to be over (except those short)l but with another fifty weeks to go, anything can (and probably will ) happen. Recession? Deep? Shallow? Inflation? Peaked? Stays high? Fed pauses raising rates? Raises more? Escalation of Ukraine/Russia war? (Yeah, its getting worse.)  Fifty weeks is a long time.
  • Well, bitcoin didn’t go to zero, or, not yet anyway. After the past year it sure is hard to believe all the bad news isn’t already out and in the market. Maybe the first two weeks of this year has brought good bitcoin (crypto) news?
  • For NFL fans, specifically those with the final eight playoff teams, stop the year NOW. There are going to be seven (7) losers. Let’s call it a season before our teams lose. Fifty weeks is a long time to “wait till next year” actually happens
  • Those with new year’s resolutions to lose weight? Yippee! Fifty more weeks to drop those pounds. What could go wrong? One word; desert. The past two weeks mean nothing. There are fifty more weeks to make resolutions come true.

So, how’s the new year going so far? Ready for the next fifty weeks? Double down or take the year off?

NOTE: Great advice. Do NOT be long top secret or classified documents. Shred them now. They’re pure poison.