Taylor Report

Big call here. Down on the year. If you can't bring yourself to be short, be OUT. The stock market is breathing carbon monoxide. Soon to be much lower. It's gonna get really nasty next month. WHEN MARKETS GO DOWN, ADVISORS TELL YOU NOT TO PANIC. THE BEST WAY TO NOT PANIC IS TO BE OUT BEFORE MARKETS GO DOWN.

Boy, I hope everyone has a plan. Mine is get neutral and be in as much cash as you can. I have seen and been involved in the 1987 crash, the dot.com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID crash and a few "extras." THIS is one of the most dangerous times to be in financial markets I have seen. That's a lot.

The next few months are going to really test everyone's nerves. Black swans are circling and one or more of them will probably land. DON'T BE SURPRISED BY THE SURPRISES COMING.

Reality is hard to take. Mountains of debt, high cost of living, extreme bullishness. Not a good combination. S&P 500 down on the year. And QUESTION. Over 10 million migrants have come to the US. What happens in a steep recession when they have no jobs? Check with Britain.

Recession talk is floating around but do not worry. The Fed has this and is engineering a soft landing for the economy. Of course they have never done that, they actually caused the inflation problem (or shared responsibility) and yet people still believe in the Fed Fairy.

The next few months leading up to the November election are going to be full of surprises. Economic numbers are going to be a lot less meaningful as the focus becomes "poll watching." The eagerly awaited (possible) interest rate cut by the Fed is probably already in the market.

Potential interest rates cuts, a softening labor market, geopolitical events and earnings mean nothing. A crazy guy with a gun and markets go crazy. Now I'm feeling older.

Flashback; 1987. The stock market did almost exactly what is going on now. Everyday all through the summer the market edged higher and higher. No reason, it just did. Then, in October, wham, 25%-30% downside.

Well, the second half of the year has begun. Is it all you had hoped for so far? The Fed didn't cut interest rates yet, but now they have fewer days remaining this year to do so. Hope springs eternal.

The second half of this year is full of risk, risk, risk. Not sure where the reward is (other than short). The next several months are going to be nasty.....with an emphasis on September/October. Don't be fooled with the lack of activity.....it's Summer.