Crazy enough for you?
Just trying to get to the end of the year and the only thing in the way is the fourth quarter of 2023. With the last quarter of the year only a little over a week old, we (so far) have had a House of Representatives ‘revolt’ with the ouster of the Speaker of the House leaving a void in an American functioning government. Then the financial markets discovered volatility. Court rooms became ‘must see TV’ with the trial of SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) and bankrupt FTX vying for time with former President Trump’s civil trial. And then……..a mid-east war.
Your alarm clock goes off in the morning and the first thing you think is NOW WHAT? WHAT’S NEXT?
So far it seems the financial markets are taking everything in stride. With the recent investor thinking that everything bearish is really bullish (see my prior post “Bearish is the New Bullish. WTF?” here), all this should be nirvana. A larger war, higher oil prices, strikes, a government shutdown or another pandemic and the financial markets would be significantly higher…..right? Inflation? Who cares. Interest rates? Geeezzzz, everyone knows the higher they go means its closer to the top and the Fed can ease. Higher rates are actually bullish. Bring on another unforeseen event.
Of course the fourth quarter has just begun. Lots of things have yet to be played out. Wars don’t usually end after just a few days. They usually tend to ‘linger’ and expand. Yes, there will be a new Speaker of the House but that, too, will have some unknown political ramifications. Would a guilty verdict in the FTX/SBF trial crush bitcoin (crypto) or actually be a good thing? Will Trump lose his NY properties? Will he be vindicated?
Ironically, all this sounds like a daytime TV soap opera. The Young and the Restless? (or, The Old and Confused?) Stay tuned.
So, back to the original thinking. What costume to wear for Halloween? How big a turkey for Thanksgiving? A Christmas gift for Aunt Frieda?
Back to basics and things we can actually control. What IS next?
Bill Taylor is the CEO of Digital Wealth News and a 40+ year veteran of the financial markets. You can also ready his weekly musings on BTC, ETH, Gold & SP500 at “The Taylor Market Report“.